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Biomonthly Market Outlook v5 2022

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Key Points:

  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the closure of Odessa port, CMA CGM and Maersk have already announced the suspension of their services to Ukraine. We expect to see operational disruptions for shipping to/from neighboring Black Sea countries, Russia, Romania, Georgia, Bulgaria and part of Turkey. More dramatic impact on the global economy is expected from surging energy prices and inflationary pressures.

  • As of the 21st of February 2022, 94 405 commercial flights were flown per day in the last seven days, compared to 68 679 and 102 957 in 2021 and 2020, respectively.

  • Global international air cargo capacity decreased -7% in the last two weeks compared to the two weeks before that. Lower demand over Chinese New Year resulted in this week’s air cargo capacity dip, particularly amongst freighters.

  • 45 cancelled sailings have been announced between weeks 09 and 12, out of a total of 558 scheduled sailings, representing 8% cancellation rate.

  • Schedule reliability dropped from 78.0% in 2019 to 63.9% in 2020, and then to 35.8% in 2021, which is not only the lowest recorded FY schedule reliability but is also quite a staggering drop from the pre‑2020 levels.

  • According to the latest data on the Alphaliner Weekly Newsletter, China to California transit times are still increasing despite a reduction of ships in waiting queues.

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